Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Pre...monitions for the SF-Boston Match

Predictors are putting up with a lot these days, so I figured I'd do some predicting under another term. My small hope is that nobody realizes it. My larger hope is actually that nobody reads it either. So without further ado, here they are.

Board 1 has two players I basically can't pick against. Vinay was put in for a few reasons. The first being that Patrick is on a business trip in Europe, and can't play. The 2nd is that I'm so terrified of Boston that I'm flying to New York on that very day. The 3rd is, well, because he's Vinay. I have to pick Vinay to win, but I simply can't pick Larry to lose. Therefore, I say Vinay walks away from this game with the full point, while Larry picks up half of one. (1-.5 SF)

Board 2 is another interesting matchup. White is Jorge Sammour-Hasbun, one of the best performers ever in the USCL. It would be hard to pick against Jorge considering his league success. However, it is David's first match, and he is always hungry in his first outing. Therefore, I decided to do it mathematically. David's total league score is 16.5/26 (63%), while Jorge's is 8/9 (89%). Assuming all scores are expected to reach 50% eventually, isn't it logical that both of them need to start losing? Therefore, that is what will happen. (0-0)

Board 3 pits two players who are showing impressive results lately. Sam Shankland, with the white pieces and a FIDE rating recently surpassing 2400, would on paper seem to be the likely favorite. However, I prefer to go by the most recent of results. In the Miami Open, Esserman put up the strong score of 6.5/9. Shankland, however, couldn't even manage a point. Therefore, I have to go with Esserman on this board, and being kind to our team, I'll say he only gets 2-0. (2-0 BOS)

And it all comes down to board 4. So far, the score is 2.5-1 in Boston's favor. We all know Naroditsky is a powerful force, but can he make up the slack? Lest we forget, he's playing one of the most feared players in all the league. While I must pick the kid to pick up a point, I don't want to be unfair to Ilya, so I'll grant him a point too. (1-1)

So, there you have it. We are going to lose 3.5-2. I know this isn't what our fans want to hear, but I have to call it like I see it.

-Josh

4 Comments:

At 9:05 PM, Blogger Vinay Bhat said...

Wow. Just wow.

 
At 7:45 AM, Blogger mark_larocca said...

Now we all know that you don't think San Fran will lose... It's the kind of prediction that allows you to claim you were right no matter what happens... reading between the lines... I think you are guaranteeing an SF victory 3.5-.5. We will use that as BB material to give us incentive...

 
At 12:34 PM, Blogger JFriedel said...

Very good! For extra credit, who did I say would score the half point for you guys?

 
At 3:01 PM, Blogger Ilya said...

Dude you are lucky you didnt lose 3.5-.5 or even 4-0... shoulda stayed in Baaston Josh, didnt we treat ya well ?!....:)

 

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